The gift of uncertainty is already here for retailers this Christmas

Here we go again.

Just when you thought you’d survived the retail gauntlet of cost-of-living pressure, AI disruption, shifting customer expectations and TikTok trends moving faster than stockturn, Donald Trump with his global trade shenanigans has decided to roll out another gift. And no, it’s not wrapped in sustainable paper with carbon-neutral bows. It's the kind of present no one asked for: rising tariffs, shipping chaos, factory slowdowns and that oh-so-familiar gut-punch of supply chain paralysis. Or has he? He is prone to changing his mind daily so let’s just go with the situation as we know it today.

Yes, folks. Christmas is coming. But what’s coming down the chimney isn’t Santa, it’s another round of international confusion, production limbo, and price unpredictability, thanks to the ongoing (and let’s be honest, totally exhausting) U.S. / China trade standoff.

Let’s call it what it is: another rolling reboot of retail in the ‘new normal’ where nothing is remotely normal anymore.

Did you know as of last week: Chinese factories supply approximately 87% of the Christmas decorations sold in the U.S., but this year, due to escalating tariffs, American retailers have placed virtually no orders.

The great supply chain stall

The global retail machine used to hum along with near-clockwork precision. Shipments from Asia hit peak in July to September. Shelves filled. Fulfilment centres buzzed. Retailers prayed to the forecasting gods and crossed fingers that Black Friday wouldn’t flop.

Now? That rhythm has all the grace of a drunk uncle doing the worm at Christmas lunch (or in my case the drunk auntie).

Thanks to the latest trade tensions between the U.S. and China – complete with tariffs of up to 145%, erratic exemptions, and countries playing pass-the-parcel with production, container movements have slowed, factories are halting orders, and no one knows what’s getting on a ship, let alone when it’s arriving.

This, of course, is fantastic news for retailers who love a good panic. (Oh wait, that’s no one.)

What typically happens

The primary shipping season for most companies is expected to be from July to September to capitalise on Christmas sales. However, there is some flexibility in this timeline, as it can be somewhat fluid depending on the final destination and any unique issues that may arise, such as strikes, weather events, or conflicts. It is essential for nearly all businesses to have their products in containers and on ships by Aug/Sept at the latest. Retailers who are pressed for time can opt for air freight, but that's expensive and risky (given all the space Temu and Shein now take up).

Mass confusion and deal making

Reports that Walmart and a few other big-name stores are nudging suppliers to kickstart some trans-Pacific shipments have sparked a bit of a buzz in Asia, leading sourcing agents and shippers to think that the American retail titans might have struck a deal with the Trump administration.

With the threat of hefty tariffs hanging over their heads, countries are getting creative. The Korean Customs Service recently discovered over $20 million in goods from China that were falsely labeled as Korean exports destined for the U.S.......a sneaky tactic to meet American Country of Origin requirements.

Meanwhile, Indonesia is having second thoughts about slapping high tariffs on textiles and other Chinese goods, suspecting that China might be using Indonesia as a sneaky backdoor to dodge U.S. tariffs.

All these negotiations are fuelled by a mix of desperation and high-stakes bluffing as tariffs loom large, and industry insiders don’t see them as part of a master trade plan.

The ANZ angle

Let’s address the Kiwi and Aussie-sized elephants in the room. Are we insulated? No. Are we impacted differently? Absolutely.

Australia and New Zealand are often caught in the retail crossfire. Too dependent on global supply chains to stay untouched, too small to matter when the big kids throw punches.

But this time, we’re feeling it in a few unique ways:

• Export fever: With U.S. goods slapped with tariffs in China, Aussie and Kiwi exporters are stepping in. Great for trade stats. Not so great for domestic pricing. Australian beef exports to China are up 40%, and surprise…..local meat prices are climbing.

• Shipping delays: Our back-to-school and Christmas shipments are largely tied to Asian production schedules. With suppliers in limbo, expect some awkward out-of-stocks.

• Scrambling for alternatives: Retailers are exploring India, Vietnam, Indonesia to get around Chinese delays. But setting up new supply chains isn’t exactly plug-and-play. Sourcing from new regions is a great long-term strategy. But for this Christmas?

  
  

Pricing chaos

Retailers love certainty, even if it’s bad news, at least you can plan for it. But this year? We’re playing roulette.

Factories are pushing up prices to cover risk. Freight forwarders are charging premiums. And everyone’s staring at their Christmas planograms wondering if they’ll actually be able to fill the damn things. There’s margin pressure everywhere – and no one’s in the mood to absorb it quietly.

Retailers are faced with three equally uninspiring choices:

1. Hike prices and risk losing customers to discounters.

2. Squeeze margins and hope volume saves you.

3. Drop SKUs and hope no one notices the missing unicorn backpack.

This isn’t a crisis.

It’s just Wednesday.

Retailers must accept that trade volatility is baked into the model.

It’s no longer about weathering a storm. It’s about learning to surf permanent swells.

And yes, it’s exhausting.

But it’s also an opportunity to build retail businesses that are genuinely adaptive, not just reactive.

So what should retailers in ANZ be doing?

• Revisit your supply chain Plan B (and C): Diversification isn’t optional. Have multiple sourcing options and know their timelines inside out.

• Strengthen supplier partnerships: The days of transactional sourcing are over. Relationships = resilience.

• Invest in visibility tools: If you can’t see your supply chain in real time, you’re already behind.

• Review your Christmas pricing strategy: (and BFCM) Don’t just set and forget. Watch your competitors. Watch your freight bills. Adjust accordingly.

• Prep your messaging: If you’re going to run out of something, get ahead of the story. Customers appreciate honesty far more than silence. And there is an opportunity in “when it is gone, it’s gone.”

• Protect your team’s sanity: These rolling crises are brutal on planning teams. Communicate. Support. And maybe reconsider that Boxing Day sale. They’ve earned it.

Here’s the brutal truth. Christmas will happen with or without perfect product availability. Kids will open gifts. Customers will queue for Boxing Day returns. And somehow, retailers will make it work as always, duct tape and determination in equal parts.

But don’t miss the signal in the noise. The U.S.–China trade war isn’t an isolated glitch. It’s part of a much bigger shift where geopolitics is crashing head-first into globalised retail. And we, in our little corner of the Southern Hemisphere, are smack bang in the ripple zone.

This isn’t a season of panic. It’s a season of clarity. The more we accept that nothing is normal, the faster we’ll build retail systems that don’t just survive chaos but they run on it.

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If you’re finding it hard to keep pace with the rolling reset that is everyday retail, perhaps it’s time we had a chat. Whether you’re looking to position your business for growth or simply need to reposition to cope with the chaos, RX Group is here to listen, offer sound advice, and help you make meaningful change where it matters most. Because in this ‘new normal’, you don’t have to navigate it alone. And it makes sense to work with the experts. Email: Juanita@rxgroup.co.nz or phone +6427476073